Locks Don’t Exist – “Anyone who has watched sports for about a month realizes that the difference between winning and losing, especially against the spread, can be infinitesimally small,” Gordon says.
“Most people with an understanding of football gambling bet between 3 percent and 5 percent of their bankroll, increasing when they win and reducing when they lose,” Vaccaro says. “Squares usually bet later in the week and they tend to pick the favorites.
Moseman agrees and especially likes home underdogs. The NFL, for example, will have very similar numbers at most of the betting shops you visit.
3. Chasing losses is the fastest way to the poor house.”
“The bookies fear and despise a tiny coterie of professional bettors known as ‘the sharps,'” Konik says. The payout is just the same as far as he is concerned. “In the NFL, a game will often be totally turned around by one or two plays, or even a single penalty. “Common wisdom says that over the course of a long football season the average man or woman will pick approximately 50 percent winners.
“In an average season, fewer than one bettor in twelve turns a profit,” Gordon says. “Teams play inspired ball at home.
Certainly not back into the pockets of the average bettor. Focus on Conferences – “The best way to win money betting football is to develop a niche and follow it closely,” Moseman advises. “The sharps are usually members of a betting syndicate privy to the most up-to-date information on injuries, weather, game plans, and, most important, the real power of the teams involved. He loses year after year, according to Dan Gordon, a top football handicapper and author of How to Beat the Sports Books (Cardoza Publishing 2005). “He is not jaded by teams and does not bet with his heart. “Most people prefer to bet on the ‘better’ team, the one that will probably win the game. The only touts bettors should consider are the ones who talk about the long haul and realistic winning percentages, which are in the upper 50 percent to lower 60 percent range.”
“The biggest mistake that amateur bettors make is they increase their bets when they are losing,” Sevransky says.
But that doesn’t mean you have to bet like a “square” and throw away your hard-earned money.
“A sharp or smart has a plan of what he wants to do,” says Vaccaro, the director of sports operations and public relations at Lucky’s Race and Sports Book in Las Vegas.
Newspapers and popular sports sites routinely publish the lines or point spreads for games, and football insiders offer their picks to viewers each week on ESPN and other cable networks. Shop For Numbers – “Another important aspect of betting on football is shopping for the best number,” Moseman explains. “When you’re in a good rhythm and winning, you want to increase your bets. “If you become an expert on a smaller conference like the WAC, you have a good chance to beat the house because sports book operators do not have the time or resources to follow this conference the way you can. If you are going to go with a favorite, it is best to place your bet early in the week when the sharps are laying heavy money on the points. So underdogs tend to be slightly undervalued – except by the sharps.”
“The standard bet requires gamblers to lay $11 for every $10 they want to win with the extra $1 or 10 percent known as the juice,” Konik says. There is a wealth of information on the Internet; it is just up to you to find it and research it daily.”
Although exact figures are impossible to calculate, according to Jimmy Vaccaro, widely considered to be Las Vegas’ most influential bookmaker, Americans probably wager more than $50 billion a year on NFL and college football combined. Drinking and Gambling Don’t Mix – “There is a reason the casinos in Las Vegas supply you with free drinks while you are gambling,” Moseman says. Avoid Exotic Bets – “For very skilled handicappers, with a proven track record, there can, at least in theory, be value in betting parlays,” says Gordon on the type of bet that combines two or more individual wagers.
7. They use powerful computers that can process millions of bits of data and produce a more accurate point-spread line than the bookmakers.”
Ted Sevransky, a well-known Las Vegas gambler and sports consultant with Sportsmemo.com, agrees.
Even Hollywood is not immune – think Two for the Money with Al Pacino and Matthew McConaughey.
9. “The key to proper money management is to be sure not to bet more than you can afford to lose.”
5. “For example, if you have a $1,000 bankroll for the season, you should generally bet no more than $50 a game.”
8. In fact, sports bettors must pick 52.4 percent winners just to break even.”
So, how much are we gambling each football season?
And where does all that money go?
Michael Konik, a sports writer and best-selling author of The Smart Money (Simon & Schuster 2006), explains why it is so hard for the recreational gambler to win at betting on football. And why not? We have unconditional love for the sport and betting $50 or $100 on a game adds an extra rush of adrenaline. Oakland comes to mind) seem like the Super Bowl. Research Football Services – “Most sports services realize that most people who sign up with them are insecure,” Gordon warns. If you want advice about sports betting, find someone who has a successful track record.
“A square is the average, unsophisticated gambler whose decision making is based on hunches, media manipulation, or spurious systems that cannot overcome the bookmaker’s inherent mathematical advantage,” Konik explains. “There will be more discrepancy in the numbers at different sports books. But, when you’re struggling, that’s when you want to reduce your bet size until you get out of your slump. Slim underdogs regularly win outright. “Over the course of several seasons, the percentage of bettors who turn a profit is minuscule.”
“A square or recreational player might have a vague plan, but after two Corona’s he will definitely run to the window and make a hasty decision on the USC-Notre Dame game because he wants to be involved in the party atmosphere,” Vaccaro says. Consider Underdogs – “In the long-run, it’s easier to win betting on the underdog,” Konik says. These books change their numbers according to the betting patterns of their customers, so it is not entirely uncommon to find two or three point differences in the lines.”
However, Konik adds that there are some bettors who actually know how to beat the bookies. If you like an underdog, it is best to get your bet in as late as possible, where there is heavy action from squares on favorites. “As for me, the best bet in football is betting the point spread or over/under totals on individual games. Otherwise, you’re better off doing your own research.”
But even though the math says it’s virtually impossible to win on a consistent basis, Americans continue to bet on football. There are almost an infinite number of scenarios that can happen in a single football game. To be a successful sports bettor you need to operate with a clear mind.”
While these tips don’t guarantee you’re going to win, hopefully they can make you a little less square and a little more sharp in your picks this season. He is not taken in by being involved in USC-Notre Dame just because it is the biggest watched game of the day. Bet at the Right Time – “The sharp bettors tend to bet underdogs, and they tend to bet them early,” Moseman says. If North Texas is his best bet on a Saturday then that is his bet. Avoid Chasing Bets – “Don’t do it! There is no worse way to mismanage your bankroll than to chase your bets after a losing day,” cautions Moseman on the dangerous practice of trying to immediately win back your losses. Not all games work according to this formula, but it is usually a good rule of thumb.”
“There is probably no better bet in sports than playing an underdog at home,” Moseman says. Also, being “in action” can make a dull late-afternoon game (Buffalo vs. Money Management – “This is without a doubt the most important aspect of betting on sports and possibly the most neglected,” says Morey “Doc” Moseman, a professional gambler and sports consultant with DocSports.com for nearly 40 years. Thanks to the juice, the only one who profits in this scenario is the bookmaker.
Betting on football games; whether it’s through a local bookie, an offshore Internet site or a Nevada casino (still the only legal place in America to make football bets), most of us have done it or know of someone who has.
Also, it’s probably a good idea to disregard advice from the myriad of ex-players and football experts you see on television each week. “Because alcohol clouds your judgment and usually helps you to make rash decisions you usually wouldn’t otherwise make. “Thus, the bookies love and cherish the squares.”
So, is it possible for the average square to become a little sharper in making football bets this season? According to professionals like Vacarro, Konik and Gordon, amateur bettors have the best chance to win if they demonstrate a little patience and follow the 10 basic tips below. “If you listen to their advice, you are sure to lose. The only locks that exist are those that need keys to open them.”
“The talking heads on TV know nothing about sports betting,” says Sevransky. On college you will be able to find different lines at different sports books. Big underdogs often find ways to cover the spread and they rarely give up toward the end of a game in front of the home crowd.”
And remember, in the immortal words of “Fast” Eddie Felson, “Money won is twice as sweet as money earned.”
Another difference between squares and sharps is how they approach betting on game day.
10. Giving 11 to 10 odds is almost always the cheapest price you can give.”
So, how much should you bet a game?
4. “In trying to bamboozle potential customers, many services make claims about having scouts all over the country that give them inside information and promise 70 or even 80 percent winners, as if the bookmakers were the biggest suckers in the world.
The Australian Wagering Council is dead right when it said “the need for government reform of the Interactive Gambling Act 2001 (Cth), which no longer reflects the current state of technology”. While betting with some offshore bookmakers is risky, they will at least take a bet from customers. The prices on the Australian bookies varied between 1.4 and 1.45. The government needs to act immediately to stop these bookmakers from making Australian punters risk their money overseas. These UK giants made a big mistake when they thought they could treat the Australian public the same way they treated the UK public for years.
“If you enjoy a bet on racing and sport make sure you do it with an Australian licensed, highly regulated wagering service provider”, Mr Downy concluded.
In total I could get $389 to win $163 across all Australian Wagering Council Bookmakers. I could get better offshore, but lets say i really wanted to support local australian business (cough, hack, wheeze).
The Australian Wagering Council has warned more Australians face losing their money and risks to the security of their personal and financial information, unless governments commit to a crackdown on the operations of illegal offshore wagering service providers.
They let me bet $200.
This morning I read the following statement from the so called Australian Wagering Council (which is solely made up of Bristish Bookmakers) which really made me angry.
This happens every single day on every single bet most people try and place. My only choice is to bet offshore.
I could bet a max of $76 here.
You can read the entire thing here, but I’ll paste the gist of it.
Hmm, a mighty $113
. All thanks to the members of the Australian Wagering Council.
The proliferation of illegal offshore operators again highlights the need for government reform of the Interactive Gambling Act 2001 (Cth), which no longer reflects the current state of technology or advances in global harm
Time to crack the whip on illegal offshore operators
I went to Sportsbet first
Do we want to send our money overseas? Off course not
Do we like having to risk never being paid? Umm No
If we could place our bets in Australia would we? HELL YES
Maybe off to Unibet then
I wanted to place $500 on South Sydney to win tonight’s big NRL finals game against Manly. This NRL game is a huge game and yet they limit or ban me completely. It is infact the bookmakers that form the AWC that have forced punters hands and the only way they can now bet is to go offshore.
What about Ladbrokes group (Ladbrokes, Bookmaker and Betstar)
Off to Tom Waterhouse (sportingbet and Centrebet)
Now sadly I am off to send money I really don’t want to overseas bookies. They need to make sure everyone is given a fair go and can bet whatever they like on all sports and that these corporate bookmakers pay a fair tax on their profits.
It is estimated in excess of $1Billion is bet offshore by Australians annually and a 2014 report on interactive gambling, funded by Gambling Research Australia, found that at least one-third of interactive gamblers were not concerned about gambling with offshore providers.
I’m not even allowed to bet 1 cent with them on the game.
What a load of utter f&cken bulls#t
But Nevada is gaining ground and significance, and a handle approaching $5 billion (with a win percentage in the 5.5 range) is no small thing to bookmakers and casino operators.
“You go to these places for the Super Bowl and Final Four,” Roxborough said, “and it’s a very skewed demographic for people in their 20s.”
Kornegay, Rood and Vaccaro have appeared on ESPN “SportsCenter” spots in the past year, televised signs of increased mainstream media coverage in all forums. But that trend has reversed. The Nevada handle of $2.4 billion in 1995 remained flat for more than a decade while offshore books owned the market.
Bookmakers all over the city are getting noticeably more aggressive in beefing up betting menus — even on baseball, golf, hockey and mixed martial arts — to create a more competitive market. “There is more access to everything, and I think the mobile app is the catalyst.”
Times have changed in many eye-opening ways in the past five years, and, of course, since the ’70s.
“We have a pretty sports-passionate culture,” Lawton said.
In the late 1990s, Roxborough said, casinos were plotting to downsize sports books. It’s growing and growing and growing, and it’s going to get bigger.”
“People started to bet more because they could bet on their phone,” Holt said. Still, he was blown away in February, and then blown away again in March.
Mobile apps, mainstream and social media interest, the expansion of in-game and proposition wagering, fantasy sports’ popularity, Las Vegas book upgrades, laws that caused a slight shift away from offshore wagering, and various economic and societal factors are creating a perfect storm surge for legal sports wagering in Nevada.
“Every single big event has gone up, with record-breaking handles every year,” said Matthew Holt, vice president of CG Technology sports books. each year. “I’ve seen from studies around the world that the mobile app builds business, there’s no question about it,” said Michael “Roxy” Roxborough, an oddsmaker who founded and operated Las Vegas Sports Consultants from 1982 to 1999. Ten years ago, nobody cared about betting in Las Vegas.”. It’s a cheap date,” Vaccaro said. The sports betting handle in Nevada was $2.4 billion in 2006. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). And that was Super Bowl week.
“In the long run, it could revolutionize sports betting in the state,” Holt said. “It’s a way for people outside of the state to get involved.”
Offshore and underground bookmakers still dominate the action, with an estimated $400 billion bet illegally on sports in the U.S. The Westgate recently poured more than $12 million into the installation of state-of-the-art video boards and a renovated book, and Station Casinos spent millions on new video boards at Red Rock Resort.
“I’m just flabbergasted,” Vaccaro said. “That made everyone else get an app, too, because they wanted to be competitive.”
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at email@example.com or 702-387-2907. CG Technology and William Hill sports books led the way with mobile phone apps that changed the game when introduced five years ago.
Kornegay added, “Just the popularity of sports betting, the entertainment value is second to none.”
The biggest events are booming. and Manny Pacquiao generated an estimated handle of $80 million in the state.
Mobile phone apps and increased mainstream media coverage of sports betting are two major parts of the equation.
“The mobile app is just so popular,” Westgate sports book director Jay Kornegay said “The counter handle has not suffered, either.”
At the South Point, Vaccaro said, around 100 customers signed up for the mobile app during the NCAA Tournament, and the book’s tournament handle was up about $1.2 million over 2015.
From his spot behind the counter at the South Point sports book, he watched amusement park-like lines form at each open window. “On a macro level, the sports betting industry in Nevada never has been stronger. A record $132.5 million was wagered in the state on Super Bowl 50 — up from $98.9 million three years ago. It adds up to free advertising.
“There are more women than I’ve ever seen, and they know the money line is different from the point spread. “But there is no one set reason the handle is going up.”
“You are seeing a majority of locals betting on phone apps, and they come to your casino to watch the games. 19, and it has boosted the book’s handle instead of cannibalizing counter business.
In the late 1970s, as Jimmy Vaccaro tells the story, there were times when ticket writers in Strip sports books would fall asleep behind the counter because there was so little action. A year ago, boxing’s megafight between Floyd Mayweather Jr. On any given day, Twitter is flooded with sports betting-related posts, helping to attract younger bettors. CG Technology executives lobbied lawmakers and worked with the Gaming Control Board to get the bill passed, and the entity concept is expected to flourish for football season in the fall.
Vaccaro has seen almost everything there is to see during four decades as a Las Vegas bookmaker. A month after the Super Bowl brought a crush of customers, the first four days of the NCAA Tournament did the same.
But there are simple theories, too.
It’s tough to find a book without a mobile app. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. State gaming laws are being loosened to help pump up the handle, with entity betting being one progressive example.
On many days, Vaccaro said, 40 percent of what is wagered with the South Point comes in on phone accounts. Follow on Twitter: @mattyoumans247
“The way things are trending, it’s possible,” Michael Lawton, senior research analyst for the Gaming Control Board, said of the $5 billion figure. “People can’t get enough of it. “Las Vegas betting is stronger than ever. You see them drinking Coronas all day,” Vaccaro said. There are a lot of moving parts contributing to what we’re seeing.”
Make no mistake, offshore books such as Pinnacle Sports in Curacao and BetCRIS in Costa Rica are still doing business on American soil, but the passage and enforcement of federal online anti-gambling laws have made it more difficult for the Average Joe to wager with a credit card in recent years. The Westgate unveiled a phone app Jan. It topped $3 billion for the first time in 2012, escalated to $4.2 billion last year and is projected to approach $5 billion in 2016.
Last summer, Senate Bill 443 was signed into a law, authorizing business entities in Nevada to place wagers on behalf of investors from around the world. “The world is so (bleeped) up, this is a great relief for three hours.”
Advances in technology have helped the state catch up. College basketball was a spectacular draw, too, with the 67-game NCAA Tournament pulling in an estimated $200 million in March and April. MGM Resorts, one of the last to make an impression on the market, is set to roll out a phone app later this month. Even without it, book director Jay Rood said, “We’re ahead of last year on handle by 5 or 6 percent, so it continues to be strong.”
He’s not exaggerating, either