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Using Reverse Line Movement To Win

Home | Football bet | Using Reverse Line Movement To Win

Keep a close eye on Canbet here, as that Australian sportsbook cracked the top five both years.

Now do the sharps win every single time? Absolutely not! However, they are right more often than they are wrong, so being on the same side as the sharps is a prudent strategy over the long run, and again, the best thing is that there in absolutely no conventional sports handicapping necessary..

So what we recommend is to only use the top five each season for each individual sport (in terms of units won). We tracked the top five books for each of the pointspread sports for the last two years, as as you can see, this strategy has been profitable in every sport. Carib ruled the roost season at 93-66-9, 58.5 percent, +18.55 units after ABC held the penthouse spot in the 2007-08 season.

prosportsonline.net

Also, games where over 60 percent of the public are on one side, yet there is reverse line movement of at least 10 cents on the Money Line from the opening number at the top five sportsbooks in MLB and NHL sports betting has also been profitable. Keep in mind that NCAAB was the most liquid sport in terms of top-five sportbooks however, with not a single sportsbook making the top five both years. Sure, using this approach leaves open the possibility of the line turning around and moving back against you, but as you will see in bit, betting as soon as an RLM qualifies has been profitable in every major North American sport such as the last two seasons, so if one line turns around, so be it. The huge problem with this is that the nfl line, ncaaf line or nhl line may have moved too much by that time, and all of the value has been sucked out of the unpopular side.

By: Manny G

To back this up, our friends over at Prosportsonline.net have tracked the records for games where over 60 percent of the public has been on one side, yet there was reverse line movement of at least one full point from the opening number at the top sportsbooks in NFL, NCAAF, NBA and NCAAB.

So what exactly is reverse line movement? RLM takes place when a large majority of bets are on one team, yet the line moves in the opposite direction. Another important recommendation is to use a slow moving (but reliable) sportsbook. Quite a few RLM followers watch the moves until almost game time, and then bet accordingly. Last year was a good RLM season for NFL sports betting (45-29, 60.8 percent, +11.91), but two sportsbooks that were in the top five in NFL RLM in both seasons.

Thus, following reverse line movements is the same thing a following the smart money. It should be noted that many fewer MLB games have qualified so far this season (is the whole world using RLM now?), but smaller profits is still profit.Again, these records are for Money Lines only and do not include totals.Finally, NHL sports betting has picked up 148.49 units in two years, and unlike MLB, NHL had four sportsbooks out of the top five gain double-digit units this past season.

Article Directory: http://www.articledashboard.com

The highest two-year winning percentage using RLM from the top five books belongs to College Football, which went 480-341-10, 58.5 percent, +95.10 units. To illustrate, let us say that San Diego Chargers open at -7 over the Miami Dolohins, and over 70 percent of the sports bets placed on the game are on San Diego. All of this will be fun to follow (not to mention profitable) when every sport except baseball are going on simultaneously during the winter months.

http://prosportsonline.net

The proper way to make a sports bet using reverse line movement is to place your bet as soon as there is an RLM of one full point (or 10 cents in MLB and NHL) off of the opening line. Furthermore, they list the RLM records for many individual sportsbook, making it easy to spot which books this system is working at and which books it may be best to ignore.. Keep an eyes on the top five sportsbooks at Sports Insights though, as NCAAF sports betting has been very liquid in that regard, with only one sportsbook (believe it or not, Bodog) finishing in the top five both years.

College Basketball sports betting was not too shabby either, with a two-year mark of 492-356-22, 58.0 percent, +91.96 units. The records quoted below are based on the bets being made at the triggering books, so beating the move by a half-point or a few cents now and then would actually make your record even better.

NBA sports betting has the lowest two-year five-book RLM winning percentage among the 11/10 sports, but then again, every gambler in the world would kill to go 382-301-9, 55.9 percent, +48.90 units, and the 57.5 percent win rate this past season is nothing to sneeze at. This may enable you to get the stale more favorable sports betting line at the time the reverse line movement hits at the triggering Sportsbook. This is where an important word of caution is in order though. RLM takes place when more money/ sportsbook picks are bet by the small percentage of bettors that are on the unpopular side (the sharps) than is bet by the huge majority of players betting the popular side (the squares). However, instead of the line rising as you might expect, it instead drops to Chargers -6. Note that these records are for sides only and do not include totals.

The NFL sports betting is generally considered the toughest sport to beat, yet blindly following this method produced an exceptional 59.2 percent win rate last season, improving the two year record to 328-249-12, 56.8 percent, +59.06 units. This would make Miami +6 the RLM play.

So what causes RLM when the aim of most sportsbooks is to get as close to balanced action on both sides as possible? The answer to this is quite simple: the sharp bettors; the one’s who give sports betting advice

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Vic Dillinger’s Thanksgiving Day Bash!

Home | Football bet | Vic Dillinger’s Thanksgiving Day Bash!

. “).  It’s Thanksgiving’s only hit – we need more songs for this holiday, specifically songs about pie.

No, actually, the best three things in life are sex, sleep, and food!!  And one holiday guarantees you at least two out of the three best things (or all three depending upon how suave and debonair, or drunk, you are).  And that holiday is the most wondermous Thanksgiving Day.

The Spanish were here first (and but for a few odd circumstances and a lotta Spanish wussiness, we would all habla Español today and not English).  The Puritans were not the first or most successful of the early colonizers but they were excellent communicators and self-promoters.  Their history is better known than most colonizers, including the earlier Spanish, because they made a point of not-so-humbly blowing their own horn almost as soon as they set a silver-buckled, black-shod foot upon Native American soil.

The father of pioneer girl, Laura Ingalls Wilder, was an oddball named Charles Ingalls.  He made the mistake of foolishly settling in Kansas’ Indian Territory illegally when Laura was quite young (before the idealized Walnut Grove days fictionalized in the television series).  Charles was a strange bird who didn’t always do his homework.  He knowingly settled on land given by the US Government to the Native Americans (the Ingalls were later forced off the place by the US Army). 

Schadenfreude led the way to the first sense of Thanksgiving (not the feast itself but the sentiments behind it).  The first Puritan colony barely survived its first winter here, and that was only through the help and intervention of the Native Americans living in their area. 

. Ingalls reported on the natural curiosity of her swarthier land mates.  But the Native sense of communal sharing terrified her: Indians sometimes showed up at the Ingalls’ cabin without warning.  They would go through her dry goods in silence, and perhaps would take some sugar or flour and then leave.  This was not stealing in the traditional sense.  For starters the Ingalls family was living on Indian land at the Indians’ pleasure.  Secondly, the Native culture didn’t recognize ownership in the same way Europeans did. 

The first Thanksgiving in America, of course, was not called that.  Harvest festivals and feasts have existed for millennia, and the bounty of a good year demanded celebration universally.  In mid-October 1621 (about ten months after landfall) the Puritans had much for which to be thankful.  They’d just suffered through a terrible winter, one of deprivation, “general sickness”, and many deaths.  They had good neighbors (the Native Americans who helped the Puritans). Their first complete season of growing was successful and the harvest was good (again, thanks to the Natives).  A celebratory feast was certainly in order.  Schadenfreude entered their giving of thanks as well – they were grateful that their Native neighbors were having difficulties and many were succumbing to disease brought by the Puritans to the New World.

Valentine’s Day, its sloppy sentiments aside, is the worst of all the Hallmark holidays.  I don’t need Valentine’s Day to remind me I love my wife/girlfriend/woman I brought home five hours ago from the gun show.  Valentine’s Day is not a private, romantic idyll between two unselfish lovers (as it should be).  Instead, it is an over-the-top display of crass conspicuous consumption, and the “look at me” element cannot be denied. 

I hang with the ladies, girls, hot aproned maidens.  [This lovingness, of course, works best if you’re not attending a dinner with your female relatives.  That danged Uncle Bubba Ray – I’ve had to pry him away from his teenaged niece, Cheri Lou, too many times.  “Cheri” is pronounced “cherry”, by the way.  Other people’s female relatives are all prime pickin’s, however.]

Lotsa Gravy, Hold the Bromance

How easy it that? 

And it ain’t Christmas.

But, as in all holidays (and Thanksgiving is no exception), there is evil lurking in the [turkey] wings.

But this was not all bunnies and rainbows as it might seem on the surface.  This camaraderie did not last, and as time wore on the Schadenfreude of the Puritans toward the natives grew exponentially.  As proof, when the New Englanders decided to make official a day of giving thanks the Schadenfreude is clear.  In the edict setting the event, note the italicized phrases [highlighting is mine] and ask yourself about their meaning:

No matter what your household eats or does, just remember Thanksgiving is supposed to be a time of giving thanks for your own fortune (and not for the misfortune of others like the Puritans did).  We are truly blessed in this country – let’s focus on that fact and not the crapulous, boring football games. 

To start with, Thanksgiving was observed sporadically.  But, as in Mothers’ Day, it was a woman who lobbied to make it a national holiday.  Finally, in 1863, President Lincoln issued a “Thanksgiving Day Proclamation”, and it was made a regular annual national holiday. I can’t imagine why they’re so upset, but let’s go back into the past and take a look at Thanksgiving’s origins in America and we’ll see if we can find out . . (a/k/a/, Canada) also observes Thanksgiving, but they do it closer to the actual time the first one really happened, the second Monday in October.  [Which makes much more sense than November.  Nobody ever said we were too bright or big on the details – we’re ‘Merkins, gol dang it!]

The Kiddie Table

The Puritan festival was supposed to be a religiously solemn celebration.  The local Native Americans (contrary to the romanticized version of these two contentious factions calling a truce and breaking bread in peace) were not invited nor were they welcomed. 

An annoying, even newer “tradition” is the insertion of American football into the schedule, equating it with Thanksgiving Day.  This irks me beyond reason.  Football takes 79 hours to play a game that on its clock is supposed to run an hour.  The last 15 seconds of any game takes 34 minutes.  I would rather watch paint dry than sit through the crushing, soul-destroying boredom of this man-on-man “action” that passes for entertainment (and that includes the Superbowl, an exercise in hyper-inflated, bloated commercialism if ever there was one). 

The Germanic language in its honesty and bluntness many times can be downright brutal.  Germans, for example, have a single word, backpfeifengesicht, that translates into “a face badly in need of a fist”.  That’s right: “a face badly in need of a fist”.  Think about that – if we had such a word in English I would use it every waking hour of every day to describe accurately how I feel about Justin Bieber.  It is eloquent.

***

Mrs.

Trust me, menfolk: if you’re going to be stupid and waste a boatload of money for flowers and trinkets on Valentine’s Day (even though you should love and cherish your woman every damn day, not on just one “special” manufactured day) SEND THEM TO HER HOUSE WHEN SHE IS HOME ALONE!!  She will understand better in that smaller gesture how much you actually do love her rather than with the overtly public ego stroking of gifts delivered in front of an audience.  The impact on her will be far greater and certainly more sincere.  I know of what I speak (because I love women, and I also do not need public adulation to validate how awesome I am).  This is inarguable and not open for further discussion (although you are free to talk among yourselves). 

It’s the holiday of eating and lapsing into a tryptophan-induced coma from eating too much turkey, and for groping the women (whose presence on the planet is the only thing I’m thankful for, ever).  That groping thing is probably something only I do on Thanksgiving, but for everyone else you get food and sleep, 2/3 of the total greatest things picture. 

It can be a time of laughter and arguments and good times but for that one moron who can’t seem to understand, while it’s okay to loosen your belt, it’s not okay to take off your pants.  [Oh, wait, that’s me!  Never mind.]

Indians historically (and this seems to be anthropologically proven in almost every primitive society) had a sense of community and communal sharing that is hard to grasp. 

Christmas has all those drippy Christmas carols.  Thanksgiving, though, has only one song. 

The holiday that marries all good things into one is Thanksgiving Day.  Stress?  What stress? Barring the annoyance of your “slow” Uncle Bubba Ray (drinking directly from the gravy boat again, when you keep telling him shot glasses are wayyyyy classier) there’s not much to agonize over on Thanksgiving. 

And before you even think about getting all bunged (pronounced “bunj’d” with the soft “j” sound) up over my slamming Mothers’ Day, consider the facts.  In the first place we don’t need a Mothers’ Day, what we need is a Women’s Day.  Mothers’ Day leaves out all those hotties who happen to know what birth control is – unfair, I say!!  Secondly, the very woman who so strenuously lobbied to have Mothers’ Day recognized as a true celebration of motherhood came to hate it and lobbied just as strongly to have it removed from the calendar!!

So, too, the forthright Germans have another brilliant and concise word that I love, Schadenfreude.  This translates roughly into “deriving pleasure from the misfortunes of others”.  And it is Schadenfreude that lies behind the Puritan’s veneration and commemoration of the earliest Thanksgiving celebrations.

You eat. 

Hallmark Hell

Her over-sentimentality caught the public’s attention.  She continued to lobby for the day.   She and a group of followers initiated another campaign, with politicians and administrators falling in line.  These lobbyists used many methods of “persuasion”, none more effective than emotional extortion: anyone not pro-Mothers’ Day “just did not love his [or her] mother”.

This holiday became a juggernaut (it is the second most commercially viable Hallmark holiday; only Valentine’s Day generates more cash).  Jarvis saw what happened to “her” holiday, though, and as early as the mid 1920s she was already beating a drum to get rid of it.  She spent the rest of her life railing against this golem of hers, agonizing over the fact it was not celebrated as she intended. 

Holidays are supposed to be fun and joyous; Christmas is a time of angst and financial ruin, though.  All meaning is lost – if I were Jesus I’d be pretty ticked off about it.  I mean, how would you feel, on your birthday, if people all stood around giving each other gifts?  [Never mind the other things that are all wrong about Christmas: December 25 is not Jesus’ real birthday; it’s a pagan holiday subverted by the Church to make the converts quit their pagan stuff; etc..  That’s a discussion for another time.]

Jarvis was childless; she was “horrified” (her word) to see adult children “neglecting” (also her word) their mothers.  She made it her goal to change this attitude and indifference.  She thought that one day each year should be set aside to pay tribute to all mothers, using the maudlin justification, “Theirs is the only love that asks for no return”.  [Puh-leeze – talk to Casey Anthony about a mother’s love.  Or Ma Barker.]

Note the “Christian” love-thy-brethren sentiments in this document (most notably in referring to the natives as “heathen”, thus reducing them ideologically to sub-human levels).  The highlighted passages underscore what’s really going on here.  The New Englanders believed the New World was destined for them (they refer to themselves in the document as “Covenant people”).  It was meant as theirs by divine right.  They are establishing a day of Thanksgiving not solely for their own good fortune but more in thanks for the misfortunes of their neighbors, the Native Americans.

The Hallmark holidays are stinkeroos for another reason, too.  The best three things in human existence cannot be found in any of the Hallmark holidays: sex, sex, and sex. 

Now, I ask: which Thanksgiving celebration would you rather have attended?  The original Puritan one, or the one with the party crashers? [I’ll take “I Like Native Americans” for $200, Alex.]

The Council has thought meet to appoint and set apart the 29th day of this instant June, as a day of Solemn Thanksgiving and praise to God for such his Goodness and Favour, many Particulars of which mercy might be Instanced, but we doubt not those who are sensible of God’s Afflictions, have been as diligent to espy him returning to us; and that the Lord may behold us as a People offering Praise and thereby glorifying Him; the Council doth commend it to the Respective Ministers, Elders and people of this Jurisdiction; Solemnly and seriously to keep the same Beseeching that being persuaded by the mercies of God we may all, even this whole people offer up our bodies and souls as a living and acceptable Service unto God by Jesus Christ.”

In 1910, the governor of West Virginia introduced Mothers’ Day in his state.  Several other states were cowed into following suit, with the ultimate guilt trip thrown at then-president Woodrow Wilson.  On May 9, 1914, he caved in to the pressure and made Mothers’ Day official throughout the United States, keeping the “second Sunday in May” date.

I hate holidays, except for one. 

Canadians had their first version of it in 1763, when the citizens of Halifax, Nova Scotia, celebrated the Treaty of Paris (wresting Canada from those silly French and giving it over to the less silly British).  In Ontario, Thanksgiving Day was first observed in June 1816, in appreciation for the end of the war between Great Britain and Napoleon.  The Canadian Parliament, in 1879, proclaimed it an annual holiday for Canada.  After mucking around with the dates it finally settled into its current place in October in 1957.

Another grand tradition is watching the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade.  This is a somewhat newer tradition (if you call within the last 100 years newer – compared to the year 1621, you bet).  The televised parade, though, is much better than seeing it live on the streets of New York.  It’s wayyy cozier to watch everything from the comfort of your home rather than hobnobbing with the sticky masses.

Charles recalled sitting in their cabin one evening when an Indian he had never seen before came into his prairie cabin, produced a pipe, squatted down on the hearth, and indicated for Charles to light him up.  Charles gave him a bowlful, they smoked quietly, and then the Indian took Charles’ grouch bag of tobacco with him and left.  Charles later learned this man was a member of a chief’s family and it was considered an honor to have shared his pipe (and Charles’ “gift” of tobacco).

Along with my disdain for football, there is another creepy practice.  I do not now engage, nor ever have engaged, in the bromantic pastime of male-bonding.  Bromance and hanging with “the boys” is not for me.  If I’m in a place where the men all eat and then adjourn to watch football in some man cave afterward (excluding the women) I’m so outta there.  I’ll leave if I can.  If I can’t, I’ll go find the women of the house and see what they’re up to (usually more interesting, plus it might lead to the other item on the three best things in life list).

Nothing much was done until the media drive of her own mother’s death brought the idea to the fore again.  On May 10, 1908, Jarvis arranged for memorial services to be held on her mother’s behalf in both Grafton and Philadelphia.  White carnations had been her mama’s favorites, so Jarvis had them distributed at those very first services.  This was the first Mothers’ Day and because it happened to be the second Sunday in May, this was the date selected for the future (the second Sunday in May).

They did crash the party, however, in typical Native American communal sharing fashion.  And they brought friends.  And more friends.  And soon there were more Native Americans than Puritans celebrating.  The simple feast became a real shindig with games, sporting events, the firing of guns, and the sounding of bugles.  And the planned one-day celebration extended to at least three days. 

Anna Jarvis, an American minister’s daughter, was born in 1864 in Grafton, West Virginia.  She was what the Victorians called a “spinster” (a very ugly term with many negative connotations).  She was a teacher, and she was pathologically devoted to her mother (like Norman Bates, Elvis, Ed Gein, and people of that ilk that just “love they mama” more than anything on the earth). 

No stress. 

In America, all families have their traditions and routines.  An element of commonality is the dreaded Kiddie Table (if you’re a kid).  This is where all the snot-noses usually sit and strap on the feedbag.  As a child your goal is to graduate to the Big Table where the adults sit.  That, sadly, can take a long time.  It usually requires the natural death or assassination of a senior Big Table member before a post opens up.  But be patient, kids!

 “The Holy God having by a long and Continual Series of his Afflictive dispensations in and by the present Warr with the Heathen Natives of this land, written and brought to pass bitter things against his own Covenant people in this wilderness, yet so that we evidently discern that in the midst of his judgements he hath remembered mercy, having remembered his Footstool in the day of his sore displeasure against us for our sins, with many singular Intimations of his Fatherly Compassion, and regard; reserving many of our Towns from Desolation Threatened, and attempted by the Enemy, and giving us especially of late with many of our Confederates many signal Advantages against them, without such Disadvantage to ourselves as formerly we have been sensible of, if it be the Lord’s mercy that we are not consumed, It certainly bespeaks our positive Thankfulness, when our Enemies are in any measure disappointed or destroyed; and fearing the Lord should take notice under so many Intimations of his returning mercy, we should be found an Insensible people, as not standing before Him with Thanksgiving, as well as lading him with our Complaints in the time of pressing Afflictions:

Christmas is an especially stressful time of year (c’mon, you know you look at it with that sense of looming, gnawing dread).  On any stress scale, right up there with spousal death and divorce is the “holiday” of Christmas. 

Schadenfreude!! [Gesundheit!]

Although co-existing grudgingly, the Native Americans bartered and often simply gave foodstuffs to the starving little group that first year.  Once the Puritans learned the Natives’ growing techniques (and actually applied themselves to something other than contemplation of Providence and enforcing pillory timetables) they survived on their own.

You shuck the jive. 

Hallmark holidays (those bogus holidays contrived to do nothing more than lighten the load in your wallet by guilting you into “feeling” something you probably don’t,  but you fork over gifts and cards anyway) are the greatest of bottom feeders. 

America, Jr. . Thanksgiving Day is celebrated on the fourth Thursday in November in the US.

Turkey Day Basics

She was probably a little more than steamed, too, that she got no credit for the idea and was largely forgotten (meaning, no money was coming her way).  What little money she had of her own Jarvis spent fighting a losing campaign against the commercialization of “her” day.  She drove herself to poverty; friends had to pay for her upkeep.  She was placed in a nursing home (which friends paid for).  Having lost her eyesight, she spent the rest of her days in the facility, dying there at the age of 84 in 1948, a bitter old woman hating her creation.  Mothers’ Day, of course, continues to generate much lucre.

Now – where’s my pie?

How many men have sent flowers to a woman’s place of employment?  This is nothing but a selfish bid to draw attention publicly to the gift giver.  Guess what, ladies?  Any guy that does that is bucking for a pat on the head.  He may actually love you, but his love for himself overrides that.  He wants the world to know what a great guy he is, not how much he loves you. 

[First Thanksgiving Proclamation, June 20, 1676.  Courtesy of US Historical Documents Archive]

Valentine’s Day, Mothers’ Day, Fathers’ Day, Groundhog Day, Grandparents’ Day, et al – the calendar is choked with these meaningless superficialities.  [I’m still yarked over Groundhog Day – I send that danged Punxsutawney Phil “Happy Groundhog Day” cards and little gifts every year, and he never even sends a thank-you note.  He could at least call.]

But here’s why I love it: except for the food preparation you really don’t have to strain yourself to celebrate. 

Truth in Advertising

So now you know why Native Americans hate Thanksgiving (or at least one reason). 

Jarvis and her sainted mother moved to Philadelphia, and she carried her Mothers’ Day idea with her.  She agitated locally, and started a massive letter-writing campaign, enlisting supporters and writing hundreds of letters to Congress, clergy, labor leaders, doctors, and mayors.

Native Americans loathe Thanksgiving Day.  They have been vocal in their distaste for decades.  Hmmmm . . [Insert cheesy time-travel special effects here]:

Holidays should not be torturous or seem like Eternal Damnation on Earth.  They should not be times of agitation or stress, but generally they are (ask the Manson Family just what holidays were like around their hippie-scum campfires).  But, they can be fun, and a good time can be had by one – usually only me because I have fun everywhere I go – or all. 

To show just how ill-prepared the pilgrims were for the New World, these “enlightened” religious crackpots brought many Bibles and other things of irrelevance to start new lives; among the lot not one of them, however, brought a simple set of fishing gear or a plow!  [“How doth thy boiled Bible taste there, Malachi?”  “Tis quite delectable, Goodwife Prudence.  But, I must sayeth, I would kill for but one trout!”] 

Most people lump it into the Christmas dreck, however.  It’s “Over the River and Through the Woods” (“to Grandmother’s house we go . .